Por Daniel Christian Henrique e Ivan Aune de Aguiar Filho (bolsista de extensão Probolsas). O tema que mais se discute nos últimos seis meses na área econômica é a elaboração do Arcabouço Fiscal pelo governo federal, com sua posterior aprovação ou não pelo congresso e senado. Não há como não tratar deste assunto na área econômica de qualquer setor público ou privado, pois afeta diretamente suas finanças. Como? Esse é o debate: os economistas se debruçam em simulações para entender se realmente a aprovação de um regramento mais rigoroso do orçamento público irá possibilitar a redução da taxa básica de juros da economia nacional pelo Banco Central, nossa velha conhecida Taxa Selic. Atualmente, a dita cuja contabiliza o maior percentual do mundo, nos já conhecidos 13,75% ao ano - que vem se mantendo nas últimas reuniões do Copom. Com possíveis futuras reduções da Selic, estimular-se-ia mais financiamentos tanto por pessoas físicas como jurídicas, mais investimentos, mais empregos, mais renda, mais compras, enfim.... a roda da economia gira. Mas até que ponto sem que se perca o controle inflacionário? Importante lembrar que em condições de inflações altas, os que mais perdem recursos e empregos são os mais pobres. Portanto, o problema não é dos mais fáceis... O GPFA, a fim de manter sua constante imparcialidade nas análises, discorrerá brevemente a posição dos dois lados em "conflito": Banco Central x Governo Federal, para depois analisar econometricamente os dados.
By Daniel Christian Henrique and Lucas Ferreira Mazagão. Previously, the GPFA had started a study on the dependent relationship between the prices of food parcels in Brazilian capitals and the average income of their workers, addressing their causality over time and their consequent time lag. This report maintains the continuity and updating of this study, however now addressing cross section data only for 2022 and consequently without analysis of delays in impacts. Due to the fact that the average real income of residents in the capitals is 34% higher than that of wage earners (IBGE) throughout Brazil in 2022, it is pertinent to ask: would such an increase have an excessive impact on increases in the prices of food parcels in the capitals resulting from a possible greater demand ? The quotations for food parcels were obtained from Dieese (Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Economic Studies), while the values of average real monthly income of people (over 14 years old) were obtained from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Economics and Statistics).
By João Carlos Prats Ramos (Probolsas extension scholarship holder) and Daniel Christian Henrique. Recently there has been a great instability in the price of milk. In this year alone, the value for the purchase of the beverage increased by 60% (EMBRAPA, 2022), being one of the main responsible for the inflationary increases in the food and beverage sector. However, there was a 37.6% drop in price in September compared to August. In view of the price increases this year in the price of milk in Brazil, followed by its initial recent low, four statistical models were proposed to forecast its average price for the next twelve months in Brazil and in the state of Santa Catarina: Arima, Additive / Multiplicative Holt-Winters and Neural Network. Both time series were collected and organized for the period from January 2012 to September 2022.
By Daniel Christian Henrique and Gabriel Dudena de Faria (Probolsas extension scholarship holder). Bolsa Família was an income transfer program created in 2003 as a unification of several national plans to combat poverty and was later replaced by Auxílio Brasil, but maintaining its basic objectives and remaining in force to this day. Due to the fact that this social project (Bolsa Família + Auxílio Brasil) has already been in force for almost 20 years and is preserved and commanded by different political parties in power, there is a need for an evolutionary comparison of its contribution over time to average income of Brazilian workers. Therefore, this scientific report aims to compare the impacts that this social project generates on household income per average capital of Brazilians in 2012 and 2019
By João Carlos Prats Ramos (Probolsas extension scholarship holder) and Daniel Christian Henrique. Among the numerous varieties of crops affected in the winter of 2021 with the frosts, arabica coffee planted in the south and southwest of Minas Gerais was one of the most impacted, leveraging its price in the national and international market. Therefore, in this scientific report, it was sought to research which variables are provided by INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) collected for the cities of São Sebastião do Paraíso, Passos, Varginha, Caldas, Machado and Passa Quatro that most contribute to the fluctuations of the percentage change in the price of arabica coffee. The variables collected by INMET are those that can cause the different types of frost - advection, radiation, mixed, black or white or resulting from climate change....
By Gabriel Dudena de Faria (Probolsas extension scholarship holder) and Daniel Christian Henrique. Continuing with the posting of scientific reports on fuel, which are affecting the financial lives of Brazilians with their constant highs and consequently reflecting on product prices, the integrated relationship between fuel prices at retail stations and their consumption in cubic meters. Therefore, this research intends to answer questions such as: does the increase of a certain type of fuel decrease its consumption? or increases of another kind? or do they both decrease? The opposite is also valid to analyze: can increases or decreases in consumption affect their interrelated prices? Autoregressive Vector (VAR) analyzes were adopted, as they are time series, as well as the interrelationship between the variables. The collections were carried out in monthly data for the State of Santa Catarina....
By Daniel Christian Henrique and Gabriel Dudena de Faria (Probolsas extension scholarship holder). This scientific report will follow the time series analysis script using the Autoregressive Vectors methodology, since there is a two-way relationship between the variables under analysis, collected in monthly units between January 2012 and March 2022 for the states of Santa Catarina, Bahia and Sao Paulo. The stationarities of the variables, necessary differentiation procedures, lags, approval p-values in the equations developed in the autoregressive vectors, Granger causality tests and impulse-response function were observed for each state.
By Daniel Christian Henrique, Luiz Ricardo Mendes da Silva, João Carlos Prats Ramos and Gianpiero Camargo Bedin. Continuing the series of posts that we started with regard to variations in food prices in various regions of the country after winter frosts and possible climate changes, via the use of Machine Learning applications in the Deciosion Tree and Randon Forest models, we will now discuss on tomato, lettuce and papaya price variations in the city of São Paulo, under the impact of meteorological variables measured by Inmet in the Mirante de Santana region. These three products were one of the most affected in the São Paulo capital by the extreme cold and frost this winter
By Daniel Christian Henrique and João Carlos Prats Ramos (Pibic scholarship holder). The increase in the costs of swine production accounted for a cumulative increase of 4.78% between January and March 2021. Adding to the fact that the total accumulated in 2020 was 48.78%, since the beginning of the pandemic there has already been a total percentage of 53.56%. A significant part of this increase is attributed to increases in the prices of grains that serve as nutrition for pigs, close to 80% of the total cost of their production (EMBRAPA, 2021). The most common grains for use in pig consumption is corn and soybeans
By Jucemar Paes Neto (extension scholarship PROBOLSAS) and Daniel Christian Henrique. There is an intrinsic relationship between the independent variables "credit supply" and "employment" in the proper analysis of which of them can have the most impact on the dependent variable “vehicle sales”. This relationship was investigated, then, for the state of Santa Catarina with a comparison with the state of São Paulo, since it is the state with the most vigorous economy in the country. Due to the fact that the months of February to September 2020 would have been marked by an abnormal period of vehicle sales resulting from the pandemic, with tempers and anxieties cooling down close to October (even with the growth of cases of coronavirus resulting from the second wave) and demand for vehicles to begin their resumption of sales in October (further confirming Anfavea's surveys), it was decided to carry out the analyzes with monthly data from January 2004 to December 2019 in order to the strong impacts of the pandemic period do not generate distortions in analyzes ....
By Daniel Christian Henrique, Jucemar Paes Neto (PROBOLSAS extension scholarship holder), Luiz Ricardo Mendes da Silva and Eduardo de Souza Ronsoni. Pedagogical practices and resources often need to be differentiated, making it impossible to maintain the transmission of professor-student content only through lectures. Teaching with the use of digital materials, audiovisual resources, in computer labs, including accessibility to students with visual or hearing impairment, partial or total, are some of the examples that could become a differential for students of this course profile. Within this context, the question arises: what teaching resources made available by INEP variables in its Higher Education Census would be more contributing to the teaching and learning of face-to-face and distance learning courses in technology in financial management? .....
By Jucemar Paes Neto (extension scholarship PROBOLSAS) and Daniel Christian Henrique. A study was carried out in order to ascertain whether the increase or decrease in the probabilities of Brazilian higher education students to complete their course or not are related to some of these grants and funding, as well as which ones are most contributing to this training. The data were obtained from the 2018 Higher Education Census (INEP, 2020) using the “Students” database formed by 105 variables with more than 10 million students. Therefore, analysis procedures with data programming in big data were requested to initiate the analyzes.