By Daniel Christian Henrique
Unfortunately, in current times, this is no longer news: oil was scary, raising its price, but then calmed down. The reason, again the same: a potential escalation of war. This time, in the Middle East, one of the largest oil producers in the world, with Iran's drone attack on Israel. There was an immediate increase in the Brent barrel, reaching US$92.18. As tensions ease over the weeks, the barrel regresses, closing the month at US$87.86 (Investing.com, Band News TV).
As the end of April approached, tensions over the Federal Reserve (FED) meeting and the possible maintenance of still high North American interest rates were shaping market data and the consequent continuation of the flight of foreign investors from Brazil. Added to the significant value of employability in the USA and the rise in treasuries, the dollar closed the month at its biggest increase since August last year, at R$ 5.19, equivalent to gains of 3.53% (That is, Valor Econômico).
The still high North American interest rates combined with the strong rise in the dollar impacted some companies more sharply: CVC, Azul, Magazine Luiza, Grupo Soma and Arezzo, with drops in their shares of between 20% and 30%. With the recovery of Brent throughout the month, Petrobrás saved the crop a little, or rather, B3. PETR3 rose 18.65% and PETR4, 15.57%. Even so, the Ibov fell by 1.7% in April, but that would be more pronounced if the oil company did not obtain these more significant gains (Infomoney(a)).
The tensions surrounding the FED meeting were not in vain: the atmosphere was in the air when the committee unanimously decided to keep the US interest rate, once again, in the band between 5.25% and 5.50%. The justification was the distance from the 2% target for inflation, which has been pressured by high wages and a delayed increase in fuel prices in the country (Financial Intelligence, BM&C News).
After the announcement of the maintenance of the still high levels of interest rates in foreign countries, the FED itself announced that possible reductions were extended from July to December. And the problem knocked on the door of the Central Bank (BC): the forecasts of maintaining the level of new reductions of 0.5 p.p. of the Selic that had been consolidated in the last Copom meetings went down the drain... now there are estimates of just 0.25 p.p. reduction in the next rounds - even with the IPCA preview behaving well in April (0.21%) (Infomoney (b), Exame (b)).
In March, the legislature and executive seemed to have given in and reached a middle ground on tax relief with the discussion of a Bill (PL). It just seemed like it. In April, Planalto's "new streaming series" released its new chapter with a new round between the parties. And it was another "give and take": the government judicialized the decision of congress and the senate, taking its protest to the STF. The Supreme Court accepted and suspended the payroll tax relief for the 17 sectors with the highest employability in the economy. Of course, the outcry from the business community was general. On the other hand, the senate gave change and filed an appeal with the STF itself to resume the exemption (STF (a), STF (b), Gazeta do Povo). And, once again, at the beginning of May, a middle ground is being attempted: there are attempts at negotiations and conversations between the government and congress to find ways to avoid massive layoffs if the exemptions end (Record News, BM&C News).
In early April, a broad strike by federal employees at universities, Ibama and CMBio (Agência Brasil) began. The request is for career restructuring and salary recovery. Despite some negotiations, there were no effective agreements by the end of the month.
And the pandemic continues to generate its consequences, including in the markets. The explosion in pet adoption during the years of pandemic lockdowns caused the segment to overheat. Since then, Cobasi and Petz, the two giants in the sector, had been negotiating a merger. Finally, after a lot of fuss, it turned into a wedding this April, creating a company worth R$7 billion. The idea is to optimize expansions without overlapping: with Cobasi focusing on service in stores and Petz in the online world and systems. (Exame). They should change the company name to "SuperPet".
References: Agência Brasil, Band News TV, BM&C News, Exame(a), Exame(b), Gazeta do Povo, Infomoney(a), Infomoney(b), Inteligência Financeira, Investing.com, Isto É, Valor Econômico, STF(a), STF(b)